THE BREAKDOWN: September 2026 El Niño Update

MEMPHIS, Tenn. (WMC) - We are getting closer to Super El Niño strength as of the September 2026 El Niño Update, and confidence in the strongest El Niño since official records began in 1950 are growing.

The 3-month period of June through August 2026 has seen the Niño 3.4 region average 1.4 degrees Celsius or 2.52 degrees Fahrenheit above average.

This puts us at a moderate El Niño phase, with the strong phase threshold at 1.5 degrees Celsius.

That Niño 3.4 region continues to warm, averaging 2.0 degrees Celsius, or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, above average in the past week.

That Niño 1+2 region just offshore northwest South America, which typically warms first, is at 3.7 degrees Celsius, or 6.66 degrees Fahrenheit, above average in the same time frame.

This means as we head into the fall and winter months in the Northern Hemisphere, that Super El Niño status of the Niño 3.4 region warming 2 degrees Celsius above average is not far away.

There is now a 98% chance of seeing this Super El Niño in the 3-month period between October and December 2026, and it is likely to persist in its Super El Niño phase through at least February.

This new update is highlighting the chance of an end to this El Niño heading into Spring of 2027, with a 55% chance of a neutral phase between April and June.

We talked last month about the warmest the Niño 3.4 region has ever been since records began in 1950 being the winter of 1982-83 at 2.4 degrees Celsius above average.

There is now a 75% chance of October through December 2026 being higher than that, with the median forecast peaking at 2.67 degrees Celsius, or 4.79 degrees Fahrenheit, at that time.

For September 2026, this means wetter than average conditions continue in the Central and Eastern Pacific, as the hurricane season remains on track for above average activity.

For Oceania, this means drier conditions with worsening drought is expected to persist for countries like Malaysia and Indonesia.

India is expected to remain drier than average along with portions of Central Africa.

And while parts of Southern Brazil and Colombia see wetter conditions along with Ecuador, areas like Venezuela and the Caribbean will continue to see dry conditions with below average activity continuing for the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Here in the United States, the strengthening El Niño will have impacts on this fall and winter. Stay tuned for those impacts in our next breakdown.

Click here to sign up for our newsletter!

Click here to report a spelling or grammar error. Please include the headline.