Watching multiple disturbances for tropical development

August 29, 2022
Tropical Outlook from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as of 2 PM Monday, August 29, 2022
Tropical Outlook from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as of 2 PM Monday, August 29, 2022(WMC)
Published: Aug. 28, 2022 at 7:20 AM CDT|Updated: Aug. 29, 2022 at 2:01 PM CDT
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MEMPHIS, Tenn. (WMC) - There are four tropical disturbances the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring.

One disturbance, located over the Central Tropical Atlantic, is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers.

Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, some gradual development of this system is expected over the next several days and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week.

The disturbance is forecast to move slowly toward the west and northwest at 5 to 10 mph, toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands.

  • Formation chance: 80%
Tropical Outlook from the National Hurricane Center as of 2 PM Monday, August 29, 2022
Tropical Outlook from the National Hurricane Center as of 2 PM Monday, August 29, 2022(WMC)

There are three other disturbances that we’re tracking:

  1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa Monday evening or early Tuesday. Some gradual development of this system is possible after that time while it moves generally westward across the far eastern tropical Atlantic. Formation chance: 30%
  2. Central Subtropical Atlantic: A small low pressure system located about 600 miles east of Bermuda continues to produce limited shower activity. Strong upper-level winds and dry air are expected to limit significant development of this system while it drifts southward and southwestward over the central Atlantic during the next couple of days, and likely dissipate by the end of the week. Formation chance: 10%
  3. Northwestern Caribbean Sea: A trough of low pressure could develop over the northwestern Caribbean Sea later this week. Environmental conditions could support some slow development of the system thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and toward the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Formation chance: 10%

The First Alert Storm Tracking Team will continue to monitor these disturbances, so stay tuned for updates!

Read the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook here

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