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NOAA releases 2021-2022 Winter Outlook

NOAA released its annual winter outlook on October 21, 2021
NOAA released its annual winter outlook on October 21, 2021(WMC)
Published: Oct. 21, 2021 at 1:51 PM CDT
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MEMPHIS, Tenn. (WMC) - December marks the start of the Winter season, and NOAA’s seasonal outlook is out today!

Last year, the Mid-South endured a harsh, La Nina winter, and this year its back...

Above-average temperatures are favored across the South and most of the eastern U.S. as La Nina climate conditions have emerged for the second winter in a row according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center — a division of the National Weather Service.

“Consistent with typical La Nina conditions during winter months, we anticipate below-normal temperatures along portions of the northern tier of the U.S. while much of the South experiences above-normal temperatures,” said Jon Gottschalck, chief, Operational Prediction Branch, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “The Southwest will certainly remain a region of concern as we anticipate below-normal precipitation where drought conditions continue in most areas.”

Temperatures

  • Warmer-than-average conditions are most likely for the Mid-South.
    • This does NOT mean we won’t see any cold snaps or snowy weather. This outlook is looking at a broad average across a three month stretch. Cold spells & snow are still on the table.
Above-average temperatures are favored across the South and most of the eastern U.S.
Above-average temperatures are favored across the South and most of the eastern U.S.(WMC)

Precipitation

  • The forecast for the Mid-South shows equal chances for below-, near- or above-average precipitation during winter months.
    • But don’t fret, snow lovers! Cold, snowy weather is still possible.
Average precipitation (gray) is expected across much of the central U.S., while...
Average precipitation (gray) is expected across much of the central U.S., while drier-than-average conditions are favored across the Southeast, the Southwest, and in southern California.(WMC)

About NOAA’s seasonal outlooks

The outlook is based around a three-month average from December to February rather that what we’ll see each day this winter.

The outlook does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations as snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance.

NOAA’s seasonal outlooks provide the likelihood that temperatures and total precipitation amounts will be above-, near- or below-average, and how drought conditions are anticipated to change in the months ahead.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updates the three-month outlook each month. The next update will be available November 19.

Seasonal outlooks help communities prepare for what is likely to come in the months ahead and minimize weather’s impacts on lives and livelihoods. Empowering people with actionable forecasts and winter weather tips is key to NOAA’s effort to build a more Weather-Ready Nation.

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