Tropical Storm Nicholas forms in the Gulf with 4 other disturbances to watch
MEMPHIS, Tenn. (WMC) - Tropical Storm Nicholas formed in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Sunday morning.
The storm has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph with higher gusts, and gradual strengthening is forecast while Nicholas approaches the northwestern Gulf coast during the next day or so.
On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas will pass near or just offshore the the coasts of northeastern Mexico and South Texas late Monday, and approach the south or central Texas coast Monday night or early Tuesday.
We will need to keep a close eye on Nicholas as this system could eventually bring some tropical moisture into portions of the Mid-South later in the work week.
Key messages for Nicholas:
RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, across portions of coastal Texas into southwest Louisiana today through the middle of the week. This rainfall may produce areas of flash, urban, and isolated river flooding. Over the eastern portions of the Mexican state of Tamaulipas rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches can be expected today into Monday.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area in northeastern Mexico and southern Texas by Monday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday night or early Tuesday.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high:
- Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island, TX: 2-4 ft
- Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay: 2-4
- The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore flow, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
- Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Additionally, there are 4 other tropical disturbances being monitored by the National Hurricane Center:
- An area of low pressure is expected to form north of the southeastern or central Bahamas in a few days resulting from a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form later this week several hundred miles southeast of the Carolinas while it moves northwestward across the western Atlantic. Formation chance through 5 days: 50%
- Another tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in a couple of days. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of the week while it moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Formation chance through 5 days: 60%
- Disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are becoming less conducive for development, and the chances of tropical depression formation are decreasing while the system moves westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. By the middle of the week, stronger upper-level winds and marginally warm ocean temperatures are expected to limit additional development. This disturbance could bring locally heavy rain across the Cabo Verde Islands Sunday. Formation chance through 5 days: 20%
- A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the far northeastern Atlantic a few hundred miles east-northeast of the Azores. This system is forecast to move south-southeastward towards warmer waters, which could allow the low to gradually acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics during the next couple of days. After that time, the system is forecast to move inland over Portugal ending any further development chance. Formation chance through 5 days: 20%
The First Alert Weather Team will monitor these systems and bring you the very latest.
You can also track the storm and get the latest updates from the National Hurricane Center on the First Alert Weather app. If you don’t have the app then take a moment to download for Apple or Android it to your smartphone or tablet. It’s FREE and will give you instant access to current weather conditions and forecasts for your specific location.
You’ll also have a live, interactive radar and should any advisories or warnings be issued for your location you will get them instantly on your phone or tablet.
Copyright 2021 WMC. All rights reserved.
Click here to sign up for our newsletter!
Click here to report a spelling or grammar error. Please include the headline.