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Fred restrengthens into Tropical Storm while moving toward Florida Panhandle

National Hurricane Center track for "Fred" as of 9 AM CT Sunday, Aug 15
National Hurricane Center track for "Fred" as of 9 AM CT Sunday, Aug 15(WMC)
Published: Aug. 9, 2021 at 3:25 PM CDT|Updated: Aug. 15, 2021 at 9:19 AM CDT
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MEMPHIS, Tenn. (WMC) - Fred has reformed back into a tropical storm over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and is headed for a landfall on the northern Gulf Coast early this week, where it will bring heavy rain and gusty winds.

On the forecast track, the system will cross the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today, cross the east-central and northern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Monday, and move inland along the northern Gulf coast Monday night or early Tuesday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

  1. Today through Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new and renewed river flooding across southern Florida, the Big Bend, and Panhandle. From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

  • Keys and southern Florida: 3 to 5 inches with isolated storm totals of 8 inches are anticipated.
  • The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected.
  • South-Central and Southeast Alabama through Georgia and the Western Carolinas: 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum storm totals of 9 inches are expected due to the combination of Fred and a preceding frontal boundary.

Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida, southern Alabama, portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas could lead to areal, urban, small stream and river flooding impacts.

7-day estimated rainfall
7-day estimated rainfall(WMC)

A Tropical Storm Watch has now been issued for a part of the Florida Panhandle.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Tropical Advisories as of 6 AM CT Sunday, Aug 15
Tropical Advisories as of 6 AM CT Sunday, Aug 15(WMC)

WIND: Tropical storm force winds (39 mph - 73 mph) are possible within the watch area by late Monday night or Tuesday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred or its remnants are expected to spread across the Florida Keys later this morning and reach the coast of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today into early Monday, near the west coast of Florida and the coastal Florida Panhandle.

Not far behind Fred is newly formed Tropical Storm Grace that formed early Saturday.

Some strengthening is expected before Grace reaches Hispaniola on Monday. Weakening is forecast as the system crosses Hispaniola Monday and Monday night. Little change in strength is expected on Tuesday.

Official Track from the NHC for "Grace" as of 6 AM CT Sunday
Official Track from the NHC for "Grace" as of 6 AM CT Sunday(WMC)

On the latest path from the NHC, Grace would pass just south of Puerto Rico later Sunday, cross Hispaniola Sunday night through Monday night, then move along the northern coast of Cuba Tuesday and Wednesday.

The intensity forecast becomes highly uncertain thereafter, and is dependent on how much of the Greater Antilles the cyclone interacts with.

KEY MESSAGES

  1. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the Leewards Islands Sunday morning and the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected over eastern parts of the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over western portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti Monday and Monday night.
  2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding over the Leeward and Virgin Islands, Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Across Puerto Rico, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding, along with the potential for mudslides.
  3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts across the rest of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida, but forecast uncertainty remains higher than usual. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of Grace and updates to the forecast.

The First Alert Weather Team will be monitoring and updating you with the very latest.

A great way to stay up to date is through our WMC First Alert Weather App for Apple or Android and our app also has a hurricane tracker and will have up to date information should any systems develop into a named storm.

How to download the WMC First Alert Weather app
How to download the WMC First Alert Weather app

As hurricane season heads toward the peak, NOAA’s updated forecast calls for even more storms than was previously forecast.

Visit FEMA’s Ready.gov to be prepared for the start of hurricane season and the National Hurricane Center’s website at hurricanes.gov throughout the season to stay current on watches and warnings.

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